Home values fuel tax estimate gaps between James City and developers

Cardinal Ridge, Bluffs of Kiskiack, and Westwood Park all show developer tax projections outpacing county numbers by $171K to $2.2M each year

Jul 21, 2026

**The Williamsburg Independent is a publication of Williamsburg-based Dog Street Press, LLC. An editor used AI tools to help create this report. (View our AI policy)**

James City County has several major developments, including Cardinal Ridge, Bluffs of Kiskiack, and Westwood Park, working their way through aspects of the approval process. As part of that, the county and each developer have produced its own estimate of how much tax revenue each project will generate. For each of the proposals, the developer’s number came in higher than the county’s, with differences ranging from a few hundred thousand dollars a year to well over a million. Typically, the variances hinged on disagreement over future property values.

Cardinal Ridge is a proposed 503-unit development on former Eastern State Hospital land, blending the old hospital campus with the adjacent New Town community. The Board of Supervisors has deferred the applications to its September 8, 2026 meeting at the developer’s request, leaving the public hearing open.

Bluffs of Kiskiack is a mixed-use proposal near the Interstate 64 interchange in Croaker, on the site that currently holds the Presidents Heads sculptures. At the applicant’s request, the Board of Supervisors voted to defer the applications to its October 13, 2026 meeting so the developer could meet with local residents, with the project still carrying promises of fixed traffic problems and affordable workforce housing.

Westwood Park, a 139-home project on Commonwealth-owned land tied to Eastern State Hospital, has already received rezoning approval from the Board of Supervisors, with two new conditions added at the meeting where it passed.

All three projects show the same basic pattern: the developer’s projected tax benefit to the county is larger than the county’s own standard estimate, though the size of that gap differs by project.

For Cardinal Ridge, the county projects about $20.9 million in net tax benefit through 2050, or about $836,000 a year, while the developer’s figures put the total near $36.7 million, or about $1.5 million a year.
For Bluffs of Kiskiack, the county’s estimate is about $7.3 million through 2050, or roughly $292,000 a year, compared to the developer’s estimate of about $55.8 million, or about $2.2 million a year.
Westwood Park’s gap is smaller in scale: the county projects about $171,000 a year in net benefit, against the developer’s projection of about $449,000 a year.

Key Takeaways

Three James City County developments are moving through approval with developer tax estimates that all run higher than the county’s own numbers, largely due to differing property value assessments, with other issues still unresolved:

All three developers project more tax money than the county does

Cardinal Ridge, Bluffs of Kiskiack, and Westwood Park all show the developer’s tax benefit estimate coming in higher than the county’s own estimate.
The size of that difference varies a lot, from a modest gap at Westwood Park to a much wider one at Bluffs of Kiskiack.

The gap in each case comes down to how homes are valued, not costs

In all three projects, the county says the difference in estimates comes entirely from which home values are used, not from any disagreement over what services will cost.
The cost side of the county’s math stays basically the same either way; only the projected tax income changes.

Each project still has its own separate loose ends

Cardinal Ridge’s developer hasn’t offered extra payment to help cover county costs, though it’s giving land, preserving forest, and funding stream work, and county staff still want a firm timeline on commercial construction.
Bluffs of Kiskiack’s traffic fixes won’t bring its key intersection up to standard and its affordable housing price cap isn’t guaranteed to stay affordable, while Westwood Park faces sewer capacity concerns and stream funding that isn’t fully secured.
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Projects face different unresolved issues

Each project also has its own set of outstanding questions that could affect what it ultimately costs or delivers to the county, separate from the tax revenue debate. Check out the recent posts below for more information about each project.