Five Unreliable Predictions for 2026
A gambling emporium, library contract, City Council shake-up, downtown rezoning and the live music venue
Let’s jump right in …
Prediction #1: Gambling comes to York County
Whereas traditional casino gambling is still limited to a few places in Virginia, the same restrictions do not apply to venues using historical horse racing machines (HRMs). That said, opening one of these HRM venues in a community does require local voter approval via a referendum.
While playing these games, gamblers are technically wagering on past, anonymized horse races, but the experience simulates traditional slot gaming. Here in Virginia, eight of these venues (including one in Hampton) are owned and operated by Churchill Downs Inc. under the Rosie’s brand. The company also owns the nearby Colonial Downs race track.
In an effort to make them more attractive to localities, Churchill Downs has attempted to give HRM venues an added touch of class. For example, the company recently replaced an aging Rosies’ location in Dumfries, VA along I-95 between Woodbridge and Fredericksburg with a new venue called The Rose Gaming Resort. The new location touts a 100+ room hotel, 1600 games, 8 bars and restaurants plus live entertainment.
Gambling tax revenue is attractive. The Rosie’s in Richmond is said to have generated nearly $30 million in tax revenue since 2020, and new State law mandates that even more of those taxes will stay in local host communities. My guess is that the folks in York County would love to approve a similar venue on the bypass in Williamsburg, perhaps to take the place of some of the dilapidated hotels (with convenient access to the dispensary).
Prediction #2: James City withdraws from library contract
James City County pays the majority of operating costs for the regional library system. This includes funding for the current downtown library in Williamsburg. While Williamsburg is enthusiastically planning a replacement library, so is James City; and they’re building their new library just a few miles down the road.
So which library is James City most likely to pay to operate? My guess is their brand new library, not Williamsburg’s brand new library. But in order not to really irritate their own residents, James City will ultimately offer Williamsburg a reciprocal use agreement, but cease funding the downtown Williamsburg library operations. This will push that expense squarely on the city.
Prediction #3: College students win Williamsburg City Council
The gist is that if two William and Mary students decide to run for Williamsburg City Council this year, they will win and join Ayanna Williams, another student already elected to council. This would give students a majority on the 5 seat council starting in 2027. The question at this point is whether two students decide to give it a go.
Prediction #4: Downtown Williamsburg gets rezoned
Seeing the writing on the wall regarding their loss of control of council, current members move quickly to enact the changes they want the most. One of the top issues will be to rezone much of downtown Williamsburg for more units in taller buildings.
Wait, hold on, isn’t Williamsburg getting ready to embark on the process to rewrite the city’s comprehensive plan? They said that process could take 24-36 months.
Yep, that’s true. But it’s also true that the city indicated in recent documents that they are interested in breaking the work up into several parts, stating a desire for “delivery of interim work products suitable for City Council consideration and approval.”
Interim work products as part of a comprehensive plan. Huh, I wonder why.
“Once these components are approved, the City anticipates that any necessary revisions to the Official Zoning Map or Zoning Text could proceed independently of the full Comprehensive Plan adoption, if applicable.”
Oh, that’s why.
Prediction #5: City and W&M team up for new live performance venue / basketball arena
Thus far, Williamsburg has been unable to find a way to fund their desired live music and performance venue, which they want to put next to the youth-focused sports venue currently being built next to Colonial Williamsburg’s visitor center. William & Mary desperately wants to compete with bigger schools for attention and prestige, and part of that (like it or not) is having a competitive athletic department. One of the biggest issues in the school’s quest for athletic dominance is the condition of aging Kaplan Arena. While I dig the place’s brutal charm, I doubt top prospects feel the same.
A great example of what could happen (on a smaller scale) if the city and college work together sits in Charlottesville, in the form of the John Paul Jones arena. While serving as the home of UVA’s basketball teams, the venue also attracts world class music acts and other performances, touting past performances by Paul McCartney, Dave Matthews, Lady Gaga, Elton John, Bruce Springsteen and the Eagles. Let’s see local leadership team up, secure some big-donor money, and then get it done.
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